Ivory Coast Election Uncertainties

All is going well in campaign mode in Ivory Coast for an election scheduled for October 31st ...

But how will this election turn out? I really have no idea. Rebel leader Guillaume Soro who is not running seems to have a lot of cards in hands as his forces effectively control more than half the country. Should polls which favor President Laurent Gbagbo be trusted more than the ethnic breakdown of Ivory Coast which seems largely in his disfavor? Is Ivory Coast really in a post-ethnic political phase?

Did the two main opposition candidates, the formerly coup deposed bumbling President Bedie and the technocratic, extremely popular in the north, former Prime Minister Ouattara, make a mistake in splitting up some of their votes in the first round?

Will this election mark a new era where nationality is redefined and enlarged in Ivory Coast in the interests of the descendants of migrant workers or will the xenophobic ivoirite started by Bedie and pursued by Gbagbo if not in exact terms but with added anti-French sentiment be pursued? What will the army, which is no longer representative of the population, do if results are contested? Is the election commission truly independent? If Gbagbo is chosen as the winner, how fast will he change the constitution to lift term limits and how long will the country remain divided? So many uncertainties ...

Here's a panoramic preview of the election with file footage I just finished up

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